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In April and May of each year, cashmere from around the country begins to be listed one after another. In June and July of each year, it is the acquisition of cashmere. At present, new cashmere is listed on the market, and cashmere has been listed for a period of time in Outer Mongolia, Liaoning, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia.
Cashmere prices are not as pessimistic as those in the industry had previously expected. The original cashmere market did not see a low level of consolidation due to the new cashmere market, but a rapid upswing has occurred. Liaoning cashmere has risen from the beginning of 42-43 thousand yuan/ton. To 480,000/ton, Shaanxi's cashmere cover also increased from the previous 38-39 million yuan/ton to the current 440-45 yuan/ton, and the price of foreign wool velvet to domestic market also rose from 3.7-3.8 million yuan/ton. To 42-43 yuan / ton, the increase exceeded 10%. At present, the reason why the price of cashmere rises is mainly due to the following reasons:
1Cashmere prices bottomed to form a consensus
The cashmere price in the early period was basically a low price. Although everyone thought that the cashmere market would not be very good this year, the price of cashmere was already at a very low position, and the down space was very limited. When this view formed consensus Some middlemen and cashmere processing companies have started to actively enter the market, especially for middlemen and companies without bank loan pressure, inventory will not have too much financial pressure, they can buy at low prices, and wait for the prices to increase. Then again.
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In the past two years, the market conditions have been poor, and the profits have been very meager by earning processing fees. If we can grasp this wave of market, profits will be very substantial. This is just like stocks. Many people are making money during the big ups and downs, so the market may have a certain relationship with industry speculation.
2 The increase in the price of outer Mongolia cashmere affects the domestic cashmere market
This year, there are two things affecting the price of foreign cashmere cash. First, foreigners began to levy a 10% tax on cashmere exports. It is said that the document has been announced, but it is still unclear when the levy begins; When the International Health Conference is convened, it is possible to ban the washing of velvet from May to August, while the outer Mongolian velvet imported from China is all washed. If these two rumors are true, the impact on the import of raw velvet will be very large. Therefore, domestic imports The original cashmere companies are all active and hope to import cashmere into the country as soon as possible.
Although the authenticity of the news remains to be determined, a large number of buyers in Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia are indeed collecting cashmere in the outside world. Cashmere is a relatively scarce resource and its quantity is limited. Everyone will accept it, which will inevitably lead to rapid price increase.
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3 cashmere needs to be improved, the amount of orders increased
From the export data for January and February, the overall export value (including dehaired cashmere, woollen, worsted, and cashmere sweaters) was more than a 10% increase compared to January and February 2015. In particular, exports of worsted textiles have doubled. Customs export data for March and April have not yet come out. However, some export companies have learned that exports in March and April are still better than last year.
It appears that foreign middlemen also recognize that the price of the previous period has bottomed out, and they want to make up the inventory at the end of the price. In addition, some domestic small and medium-sized processing companies that do not have inventory also need cashmere to maintain normal operation.
The recent increase exceeds the expectations of many people. From the perspective of the global economic situation, it is still in a depressed state. There is no obvious increase in demand. Foreign middlemen and processing companies are also bearish, and foreign real demand requires Only in September and October will it be clear that foreign orders will be more cautious until the market is clear.
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At present, the increase in the cashmere purchase price is still greatly affected by expectations and speculation. Now that cashmere is not yet on the market, there are hawkers and middlemen in the market. Large cashmere companies have not yet begun to receive revenue. It is still too early to judge the market outlook with the current increase. Therefore, how to develop the market, may also wait and see for some time!
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