Europe's heavy gold and silver dive has not stopped

Quotes review:

Last week, the gold market opened 1788.4, the highest 1796.3, the lowest 1735.4, closing 1710.3, or -3.61%, compared to the previous few weeks there was a large correction callback, silver opened 34.71, the highest 34.87, the lowest 30.88, closing 32.32, or -6.75%. November 18 gold opened 1722.8, the highest 1737.5, the lowest 1710.6, closing 1723.7; silver opened 31.71, the highest 32.58, the lowest 30.88, closing 32.33.

Fundamental analysis:

First, the EU budget expenditure for 2012 is determined to be 129 billion euros. The current European Commission’s Barroso made a speech at the European Parliament meeting in Strasbourg, France, stating that the EU’s 27 member states and the European Parliament agreed on Saturday that the European Union’s 2012 budget expenditure is 129 billion euros, which is 2% higher than 2011. %. The determination of the European Union’s budget spending ceiling means that European governments must cut spending and adopt austerity measures to deal with the debt crisis. Prior to this, the European Parliament had voted on a free budget of 13.31 billion euros on October 26. The European Parliament hopes that the European Union will receive more than 133 billion Euros of budget expenditures in 2012, an increase of 6.6 billion Euros, or 5.2%, compared with 2011. However, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Denmark and Sweden stated that the budget of the European Parliament is too high. The EU budgetary expenditures are finally determined, which will negatively affect the attributes of gold commodities.

Second, the ECB's patience gradually lost, the EU wants to increase its efforts to control the budget. The European Commission is currently seeking further tightening of the region’s budget, which is aimed at responding to the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. On the Other hand, the newly appointed European Central Bank President Draghi urged European leaders to demand immediate action in response to the debt crisis. For Draghi’s view, the leaders of these countries are very slow in implementing the set measures and they are taking too long. The sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone could not be solved in the short term and the property of bad gold commodities will be short-term, but in the long run, the bullish attributes of Lido Gold are considered.

Third, the Italian bank may need to add more than 8.2 billion U.S. dollars in capital. From the latest data, the top five Italian banks, including the Italian Bank of Sao Paulo, may need to raise more than 6.1 billion euros (contracts 8.2 billion US dollars) of capital. Analysts pointed out that this is mainly due to the decline in the prices of Italian government bonds, making the value of the bonds held by these banks shrink, thereby reducing the level of their capital. Italy has become one of the countries most likely to have a debt crisis in the euro zone after Greece, which has provided support for gold for a long time.

Fourth, Spanish bank real estate bad debt amounted to 41 billion US dollars. According to Pablo Cantos, managing partner of MaC Group, which provides risk control services for Banco Santander SA, the largest bank in Spain, Spain’s banking industry currently holds up to €30 billion in unsold real estate assets. (41 billion U.S. dollars). Condors said: "I am very worried about the prospects of small and medium-sized banks. All of these banks' businesses are concentrated in Spain and there is a huge dependence on the growth of real estate business. According to my judgment, there will be a round of competition in Spain. There is a large-scale bankruptcy, and only four large banks will eventually remain.” The euro zone has a lot of worries, which brings support for the gold hedging property, but it detracts from the attributes of gold commodities.

V. Concerns about the market continued, the European shares index fell 0.77% on Friday. Investors continue to worry about whether the leaders of the euro area countries can control the development of the debt crisis. The current crisis has expanded to begin to affect major economies such as Italy, Spain and even France, and suppressed the prospects of the regional financial industry and even the global economy. . The European stock market fell on Friday and the European shares index closed down 0.77%. Market sentiment remained high and adversely affected the recent gold with strong commodity attributes.

technical analysis:

For the week K line, except for the 10-week moving average, the 5, 20 and 60 weekly moving averages are still in a long position. The 5-week moving average has successively formed a gold fork with the 20 and 10-week moving averages, although there was a significant increase last week. The fall, but overall, last week's decline was supported by the 20-week moving average; additionally, the Bollinger Bands began to gradually narrow after diverging from August to September, and recalling the previous market, starting from 2008, gold is basically The Bollinger Band is above the middle track, so on the whole, the uptrend will still be the dominant trend of gold.

In terms of the K-line, on Friday, gold crossed a cross-shaped Yang Xian and was forced by the 60-day moving average and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average turned downward. In addition, the Bollinger Bands gradually narrowed and gold also fell. In the middle of the track, the power of the rebound was restrained by the middle track, and the MACD index was formed. Therefore, I believe that in the medium term, the downward spiral of gold is not over. It is recommended that investors continue to rely mainly on rallies.

In terms of the 240-minute line, the overall price of gold on Friday was low consolidation. During the day, the upswing was almost wiped out in the evening. Both long and short-term forces competed. After the Bollinger Bands divergence, there was no narrowing trend. The MACD indicator also No obvious rebound signal, RSI is still in a downward trend.

In terms of the one-hour line, the Bollinger Bands are narrow and do not have a diverging trend. Gold is under pressure from the middle track. There is a strong pressure on the top 1737 and there are no obvious signals on other indicators. Therefore, the author believes that gold will remain in the short term. Consolidation phase.

Position analysis:

Compared with November 18, on November 19th, the net ETF-SPDRGoldTrust gold increased 3.63 tons, long-term bullish gold. At the same time, the VIX volatility index (also known as the panic index) was 32, although it fell but remained at a relatively high level, indicating that the market panic still continues. On the other hand, the commodity price index CRB index fell by 0.73%, putting pressure on gold.

Investment Advice:

In terms of fundamentals, the replacement of the Greek and Italian Prime Ministers did not bring lasting boost to the market. The focus of the market was on Europe. At present, the yields of national debt in countries such as Spain and France have risen. Market fears have not been delayed. Relief, in addition to the United States or Europe, the positive data did not form a strong support to the European and American stock markets, nor did it have a positive effect on the recent gold with stronger commodity attributes. Combined with technical analysis, the author believes that the downward spiral of gold in the short-to-medium term is still not over. It is recommended that investors continue to rely mainly on rallies. Today's recommendation is to focus on gold pressure 1726,1735, support 1710,1680; silver 32.74, support 31.82,31.34.