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Affected by the international situation, crude oil is stronger
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News International crude oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday. Although US crude oil production is still climbing, the overall decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories still provides significant support for oil prices. Oil prices closed up $1.95, or 2.93%, on Tuesday at $68.47 a barrel. Oil prices rose to a maximum of $68.90 on the day and $66.54 below. At present, the medium-to-long-term uptrend of oil prices remains intact, and after a major breakthrough in the short-term, it will continue to climb. If it succeeds in stabilizing above the 68 mark, the next target of oil price will look at the December 2014 high of 69.54 USD, and the further resistance will be 100. The monthly average is $75.25, and the further goal is to look at the $80.00 mark. As for the downside, initial support is at $66.66, and below the 20-day moving average is $65.30. The next focus is on the 100-day moving average of 62.11, further supporting the 200-day moving average at $56.42. On the technical indicators of the daily chart, the MACD red kinetic energy column expands, the upper line of the double line 0 axis is upward, and the KDJ indicator is held at a high level; in the Bollinger channel, the oil price is on the upper rail and the short-term moving average is on the upper side.
Operational recommendations: Crude oil opened higher and higher on Thursday, the disk is very strong, mainly affected by the sharp rise of US crude oil. The large-scale strength of the US crude oil will continue to drive the internal market higher. It is recommended that the short-term can continue to buy more operations, but this position The uncertainty of the international situation is strengthened, and the upside space and time are difficult to judge. It is necessary to continue to pay close attention to the impact of the Sino-US trade war.
Rubber will impact 12000
Customs statistics show that China imported 578,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber in March, a decrease of 17.4% year-on-year and a substantial increase of 52.91% from the previous month. The cumulative import of rubber in January-March was 1.653 million tons, down 6.5% from the same period of last year. In the first quarter of 2018, natural rubber imports continued to fall for three reasons: insufficient demand follow-up, high social inventories; the current price difference returned, the arbitrage space narrowed; the three major rubber producing countries restricted the number of rubber exports. The tire operating rate has further increased. As of April 13, the average operating rate of domestic steel tires was 73.11%, and the average operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.89%. The Ching Ming Festival shutdown enterprises have resumed normal production in an all-round way. In the near future, the domestic and overseas market orders are still acceptable, and the overall inventory is maintained at a reasonable level. In March, the national heavy truck market sold a total of 132,000 vehicles of various types, up 15% year-on-year; the total sales of heavy trucks in the first quarter totaled 316,400, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. With the commencement of construction projects, heavy-duty construction vehicles such as dump trucks and mixer trucks have entered the traditional peak season, driving the sales of heavy trucks to a record high.
The rubber 1809 contract rose strongly on Thursday, and was mainly affected by the Sino-US trade war. The Ministry of Commerce said that the halogen-based rubber originating in the United States and the United States was dumped. Due to such news, the rubber strength rose and the whole day rose more than 5%, at present, there will be further driving power for rubber. It is expected to hit 12,000 integer mark on Friday, and the intraday trading can continue to be treated with a short operation.
Copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum have risen sharply, and the recent operation has been focused on multiple layouts.
Consumption is still dominated by stainless steel, and consumption of stainless steel dominates. The annual electroplating industry is expected to use about 67,000 tons of nickel, and the consumption is stable, accounting for a small decrease to 5.8%. Although the nickel used in the battery industry is more than 30%, the total is still small, estimated to be 41,000 tons, accounting for 3.6. %; the amount of nickel used in the non-ferrous alloy industry is estimated to be about 64,000 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the total, and the other total accounts for 2%. According to relevant data, the global consumption of nickel for cathode materials is expected to be 53,000 tons in 2017, accounting for 2.4% of global nickel consumption. Among them, NCM523 accounts for 50% of nickel consumption of cathode materials; 2018 global cathode material nickel consumption is expected to be 7.4. Ten thousand tons. By 2020, the demand for nickel for cathode materials is about 140,000 tons/year, accounting for 6% of global nickel consumption. The high nickel system NCA and NCM811 require more than 70,000 tons of nickel, accounting for more than 50% of the demand for nickel in cathode materials. Nickel inventory changes: LME stocks in the late March were 323,000 tons, down 4.3% from the previous month and down 15.7% from the same period of last year. This year, the decline was 11.9%; among them, nickel beans accounted for 81% and nickel plates accounted for 19%. Domestic nickel futures inventory was 41,500 tons, down 3,717 tons from the previous month; domestic bonded warehouses were around 30,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons; Shanghai stocks were kept at 29,000 tons; domestic dominant stocks totaled 101,000 tons, an increase of 8% from the previous month.
Operation suggestion: Copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel have risen sharply today. The author has focused on coloring more than one single. Today, the bulls have a big win. In the intraday, the color system has been warmed up this week after the stagnation of the front, and today it has opened up and opened. Analysis, the current multi-flight factors are mixed, and today return to the regional high, the overall mid-term will also show a wide fluctuations, today's night and Friday will be more strong finishing, the operation of the fall back focus more than single follow-up
Thread iron ore to do more ideas to prove, short-term has a high
While demand is picking up, market supply is gradually increasing. According to my steel network data, in the week of April 13, the utilization rate of rebar capacity of the national building materials steel mill was 67.5%, a slight increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. In terms of output, in the week of April 13, the national building steel mill rebar output was 3,709,400 tons, an increase of 29,100 tons from the previous week. After entering April, iron and steel enterprises in the limited production and production areas in North China have resumed production, and the utilization rate and production capacity of rebar have bottomed out. In addition, the rebound in rebar prices has also led to an increase in the operating rate of electric arc furnace enterprises. It is expected that the supply of rebar will continue to increase in the coming period. From the macroeconomic indicators, the demand after April is not optimistic. The data shows that the sales area of ​​commercial housing in February 2018 increased by 4.1% year-on-year, a significant decrease of 3.6 percentage points from December 2017, and decreased for the eighth consecutive month. In the context of regulation, real estate sales are weak. Real estate sales return accounts for more than 50% of real estate investment funds, and the continuous decline in sales data will affect future real estate investment. In February 2018, the newly-opened area of ​​housing increased by 2.9% year-on-year, down 4.1 percentage points from December 2017. The total construction area of ​​the house increased by 1.5% year-on-year, which was 1.5 percentage points lower than that in December 2017.
The rebar 1810 contract and the iron ore 1809 contract rose strongly on Thursday, which fully confirmed the author's view of multi-thread iron ore. The author commented yesterday that the thread iron ore will have a rebound. Today's big gain is confirmed. Look at the thread iron ore short-term will also have a high, iron ore 480 and thread 3540 near the material will be able to arrive, more than a single high and then stop the profit in a timely manner, and after the price has surged, the price will be short-term and can be short-selling.
PP continues to rebound, the forecast will also rise
News: Qilu Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year linear unit produces 7151U, 140,000 tons/year low-pressure first-line production 22F, second-line production QHM32F, 250,000 tons/year new low-pressure unit produces 1158P, 140,000 tons/year high-pressure unit 2100TN00 . Raw material prices: Japanese naphtha CF Japan reported 613 US dollars / ton, up 4.75; naphtha FOB Singapore reported 67.44 US dollars / barrel, up 0.52. South Korea's propylene FOB price of 1040 US dollars / ton, up 10, domestic propylene price 8175 yuan / ton, unchanged. Spot price: The foreign spot market price is temporarily stable. The Far East region reported $1,200/ton, which was flat. China's CIF price was reported at US$1,200/ton, unchanged. The domestic market price temporarily stabilized; North China Qilu 8750 yuan / ton, unchanged; East China Ningbo 9000 yuan / ton, unchanged; South China Maoming reported 9250 yuan / ton, up 50.
Operation suggestion: PP is going down today and accepting the yin. In the intraday, the PP rebounded continuously after hitting the bottom this week. The author analyzes that with the release of pressure on the supply and demand side, the PP market is obviously boosted, and there is space for downstream support. It is predicted that today's night and Friday will continue to rise, and the operation will go back to the 9300.
Soybean meal will be weak and weak, and will fall back to the weak
Since entering April, the situation of domestic flirting has been described as two days! At the beginning of the month, the import of US soybeans (3861, -48.00, -1.23%) will be stimulated by the 25% tariff news. Soybean meal (3214, -13.00, -0.40%) is the first to set off a wave of price increases. Not long, after the holiday, the country has been swaying and turning into adjustment. Recently, there seems to be a steady state of the enterprise; but the spot of soybean meal has quietly stepped out of the negative basis, and traders have already faced the spot in the background of a good situation. Dilemma. The basis of soybean meal in Shandong and East China has dropped to around 30 in recent months. The basis of +0 has been reported in Rizhao and Nantong, and the actual transaction price of traders in the market has dropped to -60 basis, and the phenomenon of upside down is serious. The phenomenon of flat water and negative basis is constantly spreading.
Operational recommendations: Bean 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 today fell, two 粕 高 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕In terms of spot, the two shipments are in a sluggish situation. The author analyzes that as the fundamental speculation fades, the two squats will return to the weak volatility pattern, predicting the fall of the night and Friday, and the key shorts after the end of the operation. layout
Pta sharply rushed high
On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract fluctuated within a narrow range and the night trading opened slightly higher. Volume has decreased substantially, and positions have increased slightly. At the cost end, the price of PX was affected by the fluctuation of crude oil and did not change significantly. The terminal polyester bottle tablets have entered the peak demand, and some manufacturers have already placed orders in June-July, and the inventory is low. Polyester prices continue to rise and the operating rate is high. The overall inventory of PTA is in a downward trend. Since the inspection season, many manufacturers have arranged maintenance plans. However, in view of the high inventory accumulated in the previous PTA, it will take time for the overall destocking status. The price of ethylene glycol continued to rise sharply. The price of the inner plate broke through the 8600 mark, and the cumulative increase exceeded 2,000 yuan/ton. The impact on the cash flow of polyester companies is gradually increasing. On the whole, the main variable lies in the demand side of the terminal. If the demand side becomes weaker, the demand for PTA will be greatly affected by the cost of polyester production.
Operation suggestion: pta hit sharply today, in the intraday, pta recently bottomed out, the internal group focus layout, more than a single frequent profit, the author analyzed, pta recent bullish strength, after continuous rebound, today re-bulging high, early The important pressure level around 5600 has been broken, and it is predicted that today's night and Friday will also rise, and the operation will be followed by more points.
Soybean oil palm oil has recently oscillated to bottom out, and it is currently easy to rise and fall
Domestic trend: Soybean 1809 contract rebounded in the intraday low, closing at 3,940 yuan / ton, up 0.13%, holdings decreased by 5,694 to 166,364 hands; Bean 2,809 contracts fell slightly, closing at 3,595 yuan / ton, down 0.28%, positions increased 3382 to 92320 hands; soybean meal 1809 contract rose sharply, closed at 3265 yuan / ton, up 1.75%, positions increased 123580 to 3259078 hands; soybean oil 1809 contract low rebound, closed at 5,820 yuan / ton, down 0.21%, positions Increased 23,052 to 874,096 hands. In terms of news: 1. Since April 18, 2018, when importing importers of sorghum originating in the United States, importers should provide corresponding margins to the Customs of the People's Republic of China according to the dumping margins of the companies determined in this preliminary decision. (The ratio is 178.6%). 2. The US trade representative will first list a list of 25% import tariffs on US$100 billion of Chinese products this week. 3. US NOPA members crushed 1.7858 billion bushes in March, 1.53719 billion bushes in February, and 15,330 billion bushes in March last year.
Operation suggestion: Soybean palm oil fluctuated at a low level today. In the intraday, the oil fluctuated at a low level in the near future. After the previous period, the oil was continuously adjusted back. The current position was lower than the low point of the probe, and the continuous callback pressure increased. The author analyzed the oil wave and the callback was basically in place. Recently, the market has oscillated and bottomed out, and the operation has been short-term intervention.
The eggs continued to fall as scheduled, and the operation was short on the rallies.
On April 18th, the price of eggs in major regions of the country rose mainly. The average price of the main producing areas was 3.43, up 0.04 from the 17th; the average price of the main sales area was 3.6, up 0.08 from the 17th. The morning quotation of the poultry disease network showed that Beijing kept rising and Shanghai remained stable. On May 1st, local sales in the production area accelerated, and there was not much stock in the breeding end, which pushed the sales area up. However, in general, it is not the peak demand season. In the case of the terminal, the egg price is further increased or limited. The data shows that the spot prices of eggs in major regions of the country continued to rise yesterday. The egg prices in most producing areas have returned to above 3. The egg index is 3.54, up 0.8 from the previous day. The largest producing area in Liaoning, Heishan, rose 150 yuan/500kg. The sales area in Beijing rose by 110 yuan/500kg. The average price of the main producing areas was 3.43 yuan/kg, up 0.07 from the previous day. The average price of the main sales area was 3.77 yuan/kg, up 0.08 from the previous day.
Operation suggestion: Egg 1809 rushed back yesterday and fell again today. In the intraday, the 60-day line above the current position has formed a strong resistance. We will analyze the egg under pressure and will fall back. Today's market is in line. The author analyzes that the current supply and demand side of the egg looks weak in the short-term demand. After the recent high, the pressure is heavier. It is predicted to continue to fall today and Friday, and the key empty orders under the 60-day line will be grasped.
Asphalt methanol is boosted and will maintain a strong pattern in the near future.
Spot: On April 18th, the price of the port in East China was stagnant, the inventory in the northwest was low, and the quotation was raised sharply. Specifically, Taicang 3215 (+125) yuan / ton, southern Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Southwest spot prices are 2900 (+100), 2800 (+50), 2550 (+90) and 2850 (+50) ) yuan / ton; the price of deliverables is 3050~3215 yuan / ton. The base difference of East China is 285, and the minimum delivery base difference is 120. Inside and outside price difference: April 16 CFR China price is 380 US dollars / ton. The spot RMB theoretical import profit and loss is 219 yuan / ton (including 50 ports of miscellaneous fees), plus the tax-paid profit is 129 yuan / ton. Emerging demand: In terms of disk processing fee, PP-3*MA disk surface 05 and spot processing fee are 68 and -825 yuan/ton respectively, and MTO profit is greatly affected by the sharp increase in methanol price. In terms of inventory, the port inventory was 576,400 tons, down by 0.01 million tons from last week; the port circulation inventory was 148,000 tons, up 25,000 tons from last week.
Operation suggestion: Asphalt methanol is rebounding today, the overall situation is still strong, the author analyzes that asphalt methanol has recently been on the upswing, this week's shock is strong, the basic spot price of bitumen methanol is high, with the international crude oil strengthening, boosting Obviously, it is predicted that today's night and Friday will continue to rise, and the operation will be followed by a focus on follow-up
Cotton is mostly empty, and the recent shocks are mainly
As of March, the commercial stock of cotton was 3,234,600 tons, an increase of 1,206,100 tons compared with the same period of last year; the stock of cotton industry was 683,700 tons, a decrease of 64,200 tons compared with the same period of last year. This means that the current inventory pressure of cotton is still concentrated in the upstream, this year, textile companies get goods below the market expectations. Under the pressure of inventory, domestic cotton sales progress is slow, the current domestic cotton sales progress is lower than the same period last year, and lower than the average of the past four years. In the futures market, the registration volume of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts is near the highest level in history. When Zheng cotton price is close to the lower edge of the previous oscillation range, the effective forecast is still increasing, indicating that the firm pressure is relatively large. As of April 16, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts totaled 235,100 tons, and warehouse receipts + effective forecasts reached 357,100 tons. Overall, the high domestic cotton stocks and the pressure on warehouse receipts have not been effectively resolved. The main reason for the recent rebound in ICE cotton is the easing of trade friction between China and the US, and the market's concern about the continued drought in Texas or the impact of cotton planting. Texas is the largest cotton growing area in the United States, accounting for 45% of production and 55% of planting area. March-April belongs to the northern hemisphere cotton planting season. Cotton needs a certain amount of water during the emergence period, and this year has been northwest of Texas. The drought has not been effectively alleviated. Judging from the rain cloud map released by Noaa, the Texas area will usher in precipitation in the coming week, and its drought concerns are expected to ease. It is expected that the support of the weather speculation on US cotton futures will be weakened.
Operation suggestion: Cotton 1809 fell back after the night plate, and today's market volatility. In the intraday, the overall pressure of cotton is heavier, the current position is long and short, and the recent low position is still insufficient after the attack. The night plate and Friday will fall back, and the operation will be short on the 15400 rallies.
Coke coking coal does not change, can continue to do more
Under the macro-optimal stimulus, the market sees a weakening of the hollow state. At the same time, the environmental protection problems of independent coking plants continued to ferment. After Shaanxi, some enterprises in Linyi area of ​​Shanxi Province illegally discharged pollutants, and the environmental protection pressure of coke enterprises gradually increased. The operating rate of independent coking plants may fall back, and coke supply has tightened expectations. The superimposed steel price stabilized and rebounded, the steel inventory decreased, and the coke trend fluctuated strongly. However, coke stocks are on the high side, and the start of steel mills is inhibited by environmental protection and production. It takes time to digest the stocks, and coke continues to have limited room for growth. Coking coal: The trend of coking coal is greatly affected by coke and finished materials. The environmental protection problem of coke enterprises continued to ferment, the probability of regional environmental protection and production was improved, and the loss of coke enterprises intentionally controlled coking coal stocks and continued to suppress the price of coking coal. The upstream coke enterprise inventory pressure is not reduced, the scope of active production and insured prices is expanded, and the downstream steel mills' inventory is slightly reduced. However, the procurement enthusiasm is general, some steel mills are still in a low price attitude, and the wait-and-see attitude is strong. The port offer is temporarily stable, but the inventory is still high.
Coke coking coal rose sharply on Thursday, which fully confirmed the author's view of the previous period. The strength of the double coke has risen. The current bulls have taken the lead, and the further rise is expected. The night and Friday are still treated with many operational ideas. Operation can be, it is recommended that after a small callback, continue to look for opportunities to buy more than one, more than one band can look for opportunities to continue to buy and wait for further rise.
(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)
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