iFOREX: Gold 1252 do more US 112.08 short

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On Tuesday (June 27th), Draghi, Yellen, other senior officials of the Federal Reserve, and the IMF took turns to launch a mouth-to-mouth attack. The foreign exchange market can be described as a mess, the euro is going crazy, and the dollar is falling. The euro once broke through the 1.13 mark against the US dollar, and then rose to a nine-month high. The pound rose more than 1% against the dollar in the day, while the dollar index fell and fell again, falling from a one-week low to a two-week low.

iFOREX analyst ROC believes that the weaker dollar and the expected decline in US commercial crude oil inventories as of the week of June 23 will bring a “technical adjustment” to oil prices. Accordingly, after Yellen’s speech yesterday, The US dollar index once fell more than 1%, which boosted the price of crude oil denominated in US dollars.

Euro dollar

On Tuesday (June 27), ECB President Mario Draghi said in a speech that the factors that need to gradually adjust the policy and curb the overall inflation are temporary. The central bank policy is working to ensure the sustainable growth of the euro zone economy. Full of confidence. Draghi’s hawkish rhetoric contrasted with Monday’s moderate tone. The euro was boosted by the dollar to a high since June 14.

Pivot point: 1.1300

Support level: 1.1260 1.1230 1.1300

Resistance level: 1.1330 1.1360 1.1420

Option 1: Do more than 1.1300, look at 1.1330 1.1360

Option 2: Short below 1.1300, look at 1.1260 1.1230

Comments: The exchange rate rose more than 150 points, the intraday index was extremely overbought, but there was no sign of rising stagnation. The exchange rate broke through 1.13 and may rise further. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators fell, but maintained a bullish slope, located in the overbought area. The RSI is currently at 80, and the MA20 is accelerating, breaking through the MA100, and the exchange rate will continue to rise. During the day, the euro was 1.1300 long, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 50 points.

Dollar yen

After Draghi released the hawkish speech, Draghi said that the euro zone economy has improved, and it is expected to end the volume as soon as possible. The US debt is under pressure and the US dollar/yen rose to a one-month high of 112.46. US Treasury yields rose to a two-week high, and the US 10-year benchmark yield rose to 2.20%, compared to 2.14%. Japan's intraday economic data is light, and the USD/JPY trend is expected to be dominated by US Treasury yields and market sentiment.

Pivot point: 112.40

Support level: 112.00111 .58 111.10

Resistance level: 112.80 113.25 113.80

Option 1: Short below 112.40, see 112.00 111.58

Option 2: Do more than 112.40, see 112.80 113.25

Comments: The exchange rate support is in the vicinity of the 38.2% retracement of the April/May rising trend at 112.00. As long as the exchange rate remains above this level, the exchange rate will maintain a positive trend. If the exchange rate falls below this level, the exchange rate will be significantly close to the downside. At the beginning of the week, the market risk was reduced, the yen was sold off, the US and Japan fluctuated upwards, and the market mainstream still returned to the US dollar index; during the day, the US and Japan 112.08 short positions were short, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 80 points.

gold

Gold futures prices closed higher on Tuesday (June 27), as the fall in the dollar and the weaker US stocks turned investors' attention to safe-haven assets. NYMEX August gold futures prices rose slightly by 0.5 US dollars or less than 0.05% to 1,246.90 US dollars / ounce, once hit a high of 1,253.80 US dollars / ounce; silver prices in September delivery rose 2 cents or 0.1% At $16.651 per ounce, the intraday hit a high of $16.73 per ounce. However, when Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen made a speech, gold and silver both fell back from the intraday high.

Pivot point: 1260

Support position

Resistance level

Option 1: Short below 1260, look at 1252 1244

Option 2: Do more than 1260, look at 1272 1283

Comments: Gold, Monday's European market fell sharply, yesterday before the European market rose, pay attention to today's European market before and after, maybe there is such a sudden rise and fall, because the funds are speculative demand, and this demand needs guidance, so When the market appears to have such a pattern, the market will be further strengthened. Although the Monday downswing is an oolong finger, it is not accidental to come back again in the intraday session. From 1236 to the present, there is a certain rebound sign, and then with the silver V. Correspondence, there is still room for rebound today, pay attention to the 1259 rebound high resistance last week; intraday trend, gold 1252 long, stop loss 1248, target 1260.

silver

Gold futures prices closed higher on Tuesday (June 27), as the fall in the dollar and the weaker US stocks turned investors' attention to safe-haven assets. NYMEX August gold futures prices rose slightly by 0.5 US dollars or less than 0.05% to 1,246.90 US dollars / ounce, once hit a high of 1,253.80 US dollars / ounce; silver prices in September delivery rose 2 cents or 0.1% At $16.651 per ounce, the intraday hit a high of $16.73 per ounce. However, when Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen made a speech, gold and silver both fell back from the intraday high.

Pivot point: 17.00

Support level: 16.84 16.35 16.00

Resistance level: 17.40 17.75 18.10

Option 1: Short below 17.00, look at 16.84 16.35

Option 2: Do more than 17.00, look at 17.40 17.75

Comments: Silver, which fell to 16.20 on Monday, this position is very close to the previous wave low of 16, now the price has some V-shaped rise meaning, as the daily line turns to the sun, look at the next silver performance, in the trend of gold and silver, Silver often plays the role of the pioneer, so there is not much reference. In the future, the gold trend can be expected to refer to silver. Now the daily line is closed, the price is close to the V-type, and the hourly rebound is relatively stable, so the breakthrough last week rebounded. The high point should not be a problem. The short-term operation has a small callback and the position is lighter. Later, we follow up according to the daily situation. During the day, the silver is 16.60, the stop loss is 16.40, and the target is 17.00.

crude

On Tuesday (June 27), the US dollar weakened and the market expected a further decline in US crude oil supply, which caused oil prices to rise for the fourth consecutive trading day. NYMEX August WTI crude oil futures prices rose 0.86 US dollars or 2% to 44.24 US dollars / barrel; ICE August delivery of Brent crude oil futures prices also rose 0.82 US dollars or 1.8% to 46.65 US dollars / barrel. However, the US API crude oil inventories announced on Wednesday morning unexpectedly increased, and the price of US oil and two oils in electronic trading fell slightly.

Pivot point: 44.20

Support level: 43.50 42.80 42.00

Resistance level: 45.00 46.30 46.80

Option 1: Short below 44.20, see below 43.50 42.80

Option 2: Do more than 44.20, look at 45.00 46.30

Comments: Crude oil broke through the high point of EIA data last week, 44.2, and secondly broke the downward trend line starting from 50.2, so no matter from which point of view, crude oil has rebound demand, but fortunately, there will be a long and short turn at the end of the month, otherwise it will be once a month. The line is overwhelming, and the crude oil in the market is estimated to be seen below 40. Now it is expected to continue to maintain the downward trend of this year's shock, so that the market will not fall so fast, and the short-term rebound from the beginning of 42 has formed an hourly line. More, although the hourly line does not seem to be so strong; during the day, the US crude oil 43.20Z long, stop loss 42.80, target 45.00.

iForex market attention

☆☆ 16:00 Swiss June ZEW Investor Confidence Index

☆☆☆20:30 US May commodity trade account

☆☆☆22:30 US EIA crude oil inventory changes last week

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