![<?echo $_SERVER['SERVER_NAME'];?>](/template/twentyseventeen/skin/images/header.jpg)
Hot spot funds flow to thousands of stocks to evaluate stocks to diagnose the latest rating simulation transaction
Client
Sina Finance App: Live on-line blogger one-on-one guidance
Sina Hong Kong stock APP: real-time market exclusive internal reference
Source: WeChat public number Wang Yayuan Hong Kong stock circle
Wen | Feng Jike
Recently, there have been many new stock-receiving assets in the market. First, Champion (2778.HK) plans to sell the Langham Place office building, and Hutchison Telecommunications (00215.HK) plans to sell its fixed-line telecommunications business. Finally, there is a market rumor exhibition (0823.HK) to sell 20 stores.
At 6:05 this evening, Hutchison Telecommunications officially sold its fixed-line telecommunications business for $14.5 billion.
Every time a listed company sells its assets, it is the time to release its intrinsic value. Even though we have not been able to predict this type of news as Chunjiang ducks, but when the news appears, especially the above mentioned interest-bearing stocks, we can actually Explore investment opportunities.
First, the foreign capital is good dividend stocks
In the era of low global interest rates, floating funds are in the air, and many funds are looking for investments with stable returns. Therefore, interest-bearing stocks in the Hong Kong stock market such as real estate trusts (REITs) or public stocks are often the first choice for foreign investment. But why is it foreign capital, not Chinese capital?
The REITS of Hong Kong stocks do not belong to the stocks of Hong Kong Stock Connect. Therefore, the funds under the South Bank have not been able to invest, and other public interest-income stocks such as Hutchison Telecommunications and other Hong Kong stock exchanges are not very popular.
At present, the most concentrated funds in the South are concentrated in financial stocks, auto stocks, real estate stocks and resource stocks.
From this point of view, compared to conservative foreign capital, Nanxia Fund is more courageous to face risks and invest in companies that are highly related to the economic cycle.
Among foreign capital, pension funds and the pursuit of stable return funds account for the largest scale, so universal foreign investment prefers to invest in interest-bearing stocks.
Income-receiving stocks are usually low-risk, in a market that lacks growth, but their business is cash cows, which provide stable cash income every year.
Take Hutchison Telecommunications as an example. Although the telecommunications market in Hong Kong has little room for growth, the telecommunications business can provide stable cash flow. The dividend paid in 2016 is equivalent to 75% of the profit attributable to shareholders. The dividend payout ratio is not Other real estate stocks and resource stocks can be compared.
In addition, this type of interest-bearing stock is simple in business, stable in income and easy to estimate, and foreign investors will use the discounted cash flow to evaluate it. Simply put, the value of the dividend-bearing stock is equal to the sum of the future income of the company after accounting for inflation.
Stable cash flow plus easy-to-estimate value, conservative foreign investors usually like to invest in this type of company.
Second, you have, but the freedom that foreign capital does not have
Funds can be generally divided into four categories, namely:
(1) Long-Short Fund,
(2) Macro Fund, Macro Fund
(3) The event-driven fund (Even-Driven Fund),
(4) Market-Neutral Fund.
A large-scale fund will have an investment theme and relevant investment strategies that have already been developed.
The flexibility that fund managers have can only be around this. The limitations are very large, and there is not much room for real freedom to play.
The reason for the fund's investment in interest-bearing stocks is mainly due to its stable dividend income. Therefore, when the dividend-paying stocks sell their assets that produce cash flow, the original investment logic of foreign capital will be immediately disrupted.
Suppose the fund's original investment in Hutchison Telecommunications was based on its stable dividend income. Now Hutchison Telecommunications intends to sell the fixed-line telecommunications business, which accounts for one-third of its revenue. The whole story becomes different.
The future dividends of Hutchison Telecommunications may have variables, which will be contrary to the fund's investment logic.
Although the sale of assets can release the true value of the assets and benefit the stock price, usually the funds invested in this type of fund are not event-driven funds. They will try not to judge the success rate or the benefits of the sale of assets, because this will Contrary to their investment direction.
Event-driven funds mainly capture market profitable space from market news, while market news mainly refers to corporate events such as mergers and acquisitions, companies falling into financial difficulties, and industry integration.
If the fund's investment theme is not event-driven, and the fund manager attempts to use the information on the sale of assets to speculate, but the final result is a failure, then they will be negative because they did not follow the fund's investment strategy. responsibility.
Fund managers are not willing to take risks, so when the company issues a notice to sell assets, they will only sell stocks as early as possible according to the investment strategy, and look for other alternative income stocks to continue to ensure stable dividend income. In this way, they can earn part of their profits and avoid divorcing their investment strategies.
This time, Hutchison Telecommunications sold the fixed-line telecommunications business at 144.7 million yuan, 12 times that of 2016 EV/EBITDA.
In comparison with the same type of telecommunications asset transactions, Wharf (0004.HK) sold Wharf Telecommunication Co., Ltd. in October 2016 for HK$9.5 billion (approximately 11.5 times EV/EBITDA) to make a price offer with Hutchison Telecommunications. .
After Hutchison Telecommunications sold the fixed-line telecommunications business, there was still a mobile communication service. The Bank generally estimates that the mobile communication business is six times as large as EBITDA, but we are conservative.
Taking the value of SmarTone (0315.HK) as a reference, the value of Hutchison Telecom's mobile communication business should be 6 billion yuan (2017 EBITDA forecast is 1.2 billion yuan). If Li Ka-shing sells the remaining mobile communications business in the future, the valuation will certainly be more than five times.
Let me continue to show you a simple mathematical formula:
Hutchison Telecommunications Valuation = Net Telecommunications + Mobile Communications + Net Liabilities
= $14.5 billion + $6 billion + ($400 million)
= 16.5 billion yuan
The reasonable valuation of Hutchison Telecommunications should be 16.5 billion yuan, a 22% increase from the current market value of 13.5 billion yuan, so I boldly predict that the stock price will rise 15-20% tomorrow, and the target price is about 3.2 to 3.3 yuan.
However, under the news of the high certainty of the sale of assets, why is there such a big opportunity to be ignored in the market? The reason is the "mistakes" that have been generated by the investment logic of foreign capital.
On July 18, the news that Hutchison Telecom sold its business, the stock price rose 9.4%, the main buying should come from Chunjiang duck or event-driven funds.
When the company officially announced the possible sale of fixed-line telecommunications business, and after the resumption of trading on July 27, the lowest intraday trading of 2.74 yuan, and finally closed down 1.7%, which is likely to come from the initial interest rate Target foreign funds.
The fund sells and notes telecommunications according to the announcement, earning part of the profit, and at the same time seeking the next interest-bearing stock according to the investment strategy.
When such sales are greater than the buying power driven by events, there is a possibility of speculation in the market. Of course, there is a possibility of failure in the transaction, but if you are willing to gamble, and you understand the value of the company's assets, when the foreign sales on July 27 caused the stock price to fall abnormally, it is the time for you to enter.
Of course, the value rate of this example does not seem to be big enough, because I just quote a new example to prove that foreign capital is sometimes "knowing that it can be done."
To put it simply, sometimes foreign investors know that there is room for making money, but they can only withdraw first because of some restrictions.
Most foreign investors do not have the freedom to gamble, but you do.
Third, the foreign abacus
Guanjun Industry has a current market value of about 35 billion yuan. The company intends to sell the Langham Place office building with an intention price of 25 billion yuan and a book value of 8.5 billion yuan.
A Langham Place office building alone accounts for 70% of the market value. According to the 2016 annual report of Champion Industry, the total valuation of the company's holding property is 66.8 billion yuan. That is to say, apart from the Langham Place office building, the book value of the remaining properties of Champion Industrial far exceeds the market value of the stock, not to mention the market price, which is quite cost-effective.
Of course, this kind of asset discount is a long-standing phenomenon in the market. As long as the company has been reluctant to sell the property, its intrinsic value will be blocked for a long time, so the question is when the company is willing to sell its assets.
Looking back at the market's recent year's news about asset sales, there are Hutchison Telecommunications, Champion Industries, Tomson Group (0258.HK), Wharf Group (0004.HK) and the outbound exhibition of 20 malls. From this point of view, many Hong Kong capitals are already selling their assets in the layout.
In addition, the entrepreneurs of Hong Kong's early generation have been old, Li Ka-shing is 90 years old, Luo Duolijun is one of the founders of the 97-year-old Yingjun Group (0041.HK), and Li Zhaoji is 90-year-old Henderson Land (0012.HK). One of the people).
At the same time, in order to ensure the successful completion of the major problem of split production, the veteran family is a good way to distribute the assets in cash.
The report of Li Ka-shing's divestment is visible from time to time. The assets of Hong Kong and the assets of Hong Kong have already occurred one after another. This is something that most conservative foreign funds will not consider except for interest collection.
Take Guanjun Industry as an example. The company not only has quality properties, but also has the opportunity to sell assets to the value of assets released by internal factors. (For details, please see the “Holdest Shares of Hong Kong Stocks in the Year! Can HK$60 million retail investors also have a share?†》).
The company sells the Langham Place office building and does not rule out the continued sale of its assets in the near future. However, based on the current stock price, the market is still seriously underestimating the crown industry.
If the Langham Place office building is sold for 25 billion yuan, the book value will be 8.5 billion yuan, and the revenue will be 16.5 billion yuan, which is equal to half of the company's current market value.
Assuming that the proceeds are all distributed by dividends, the market value of the company will be changed from the current 35 billion yuan to 18.5 billion yuan, but the assets with a book value of 58.3 billion yuan are still behind (the total assets valuation is 66.8 billion yuan minus the Langham Place office building account). The face value is 8.5 billion yuan, and the discount is as high as 68%.
It doesn't make sense to think about it, but if you put in the theory that foreign capital is restricted before, things will be taken for granted. The income of Champion Industries mainly comes from property rents. The revenue of Hutchison Telecommunications comes from the telecommunications business, and the volatility of income is relatively large.
Also for the interest-bearing stocks, the REITS type of Guanjun Industry is more important in terms of interest collection, the participation rate of interest-raising funds is larger, and the chance of price-cutting is higher.
When Guanjun Industry began to sell properties, foreign capital will avoid the impact of dividend income. After the announcement of the company, it will gradually reduce its holdings of Guanjun Industry and earn profits. The pressure from foreign capital will inhibit the stock price from reflecting its real price in the short term.
Let me mention it again:
“When such sales are greater than the buying power driven by events, there is a possibility of speculation in the market.â€
According to my speculation, when Guanjun Industry successfully sold assets, the market will not be given a lower discount because of the possibility of its subsequent sale of assets. But as long as the stock price is restored to the previous discount, I believe there will be a wave of gains.
Fourth, the conclusion
In fact, most foreign fund managers are not hunters who seek to maximize profits. They are just a bunch of fund managers who work for others. Most of them can only act according to law.
Individual investors, investing in working for themselves, have a higher degree of autonomy and flexibility than they do.
The era of Hong Kong capital retreating from China has begun. The asset is already a big trend. We should be bolder to speculate on the opportunities in the big environment.
For this kind of interest-bearing stocks, there are two kinds of speculative opportunities, one is to open a name for the assets, and the other is the unopened, but the possibility of assets.
Of course, if you open a name for an asset, the transaction will fail, and the stock price will be returned to the prototype. If it is not open, it will be a value trap at any time, and the stock price will remain flat for a long time.
However, the benefit of the interest-bearing stock is that it is supported by cash cows. If you don't admit defeat, you can put it aside. Considering the value rate and odds, in fact, we can do it.
Foreign-funded funds are restricted from betting, but we can cut the tree and try to use up the money-making space that every inch of foreign investment gives up, and become a hunter who truly pursues profit maximization.
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
Composite Nonwoven,Composite Non Woven Fabric,Non Woven Composite,Composite Non Woven
Sunshine Hygiene and Health Care Technology Jiangyin Co., Ltd , https://www.jyshygiene.com