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⊙Reporter Sun Zhong ○Editing Hong Wen
Treasury futures suffered several heavy information shocks this week, but in the end, driven by the risk aversion of the international market, they stepped out of the market after the first bottom.
As of Friday's close, the 5-year main contract TF1706 closed at 99.265, a weekly increase of 0.06%; the 10-year main contract T1706 closed at 97.160, a weekly increase of 0.32%. The spot price of government bonds closed flat this week. The 5-year Treasury bond CTD coupon (150014) yield was flat at 3.12%, unchanged from last Friday; the 10-year Treasury bond CTD coupon (160023) was flat at 3.28% this week, unchanged from last Friday. After the market bottomed out, the current price difference between the various futures of treasury bonds futures further widened, the 5-year treasury bond futures rose and the 10-year treasury bond futures rose slightly.
This week's heavy information gathered, and the national debt futures also experienced a roller coaster-like market.
This week, the central bank continued to suspend open market operations, accumulating a net recovery of 100 billion yuan in liquidity. Liquidity has slightly tightened, and Treasury futures on Wednesday soared.
On Thursday, the overall face of the fund showed signs of slowing down, but the market believes that the central bank’s monetary policy remains unchanged, the MPA assessment pressure is far from easing, the primary market is weak, and the willingness to allocate is not strong. At the same time, the market’s highly concerned Fed contract has begun. The bond market is still under pressure as expectations move toward reality.
Huachuang Securities believes that with the continued expansion of the Fed's interest rate hike, the transmission of US bond yields will be more significant and direct than the past, and the pressure on domestic bond markets cannot be ignored.
"However, the staged downside of US bond yields has supported China's debt. This week, after the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, the US bond yields fell, the US dollar index fell further, and the yield of China's 10-year government bonds. Partially supported." Guojin Securities 600109, stock analyst Bian Quanshui said.
On Friday, the United States fired missiles against Syria, pushing up market risk aversion, and the bond market benefited. The 10-year main contract of the government bond futures rose 0.46%. This week's debt has also stabilized.
However, for next week, market institutions are generally more cautious. Wang Yang believes that the current bond market is in a dilemma, lack of kinetic energy, and international security incidents are more emotional shocks, so the market sustainability is still doubtful.
Guojin Securities pays more attention to domestic liquidity. “The capital fabrics remain stable, liquidity may continue to maintain marginal tightening, and the bond market may remain volatile overall. The trading range of 10-year government bond yields is expected to remain between 3.2% and 3.3%.†Bian Quanshui said.
(Editor: Liu Suyuan HN091)
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